1982 And Bust: Trade Will Contract By 2.1 Percent In 2009
DON’T bank on Ireland, Italy or Greece…
Or anywhere else for that matter; the World Bank has consulted the goat’s entrails and it’s not looking good: it believes that global growth will be a mere 0.9% next year, and “The volume of world trade, which grew 9.8 percent in 2006 and an estimated 6.2 percent this year, will contract by 2.1 percent in 2009.”
That’s the first time since 1982, and to make matters worse, net private flows of capital to developing countries are projected to decline to $530 billion in 2009, from $1 trillion in 2007.
The current credit default swap rates on government debt issued by Ireland, Italy and Greece are particularly high, but don’t worry about that too much because Deutsche Bank thinks the World Bank’s figures are too optimistic anyway.
Deutsche thinks global growth will drop to 0.2 percent in 2009, with the United States, Europe, and Japan in recessions of roughly equal severity.
So, what can be done?
Well, the World Bank is urging economic stimulus packages, but then so is everybody with any hands-on experience in what might loosely be termed the real world, and as always there’s a highlight amidst the gloom.
Stephen Harper is still locked in his study with his old service revolver, and, from time to time, cries of ‘We don’t need no stinkin’ stimuli’ can be heard echoing across the frozen Canadian tundras, living proof of Jane Austen’s observation that:
“For what do we live, but to make sport for our neighbours, and laugh at them in our turn?”…
– Chenier
Posted: 10th, December 2008 | In: Back pages Comment (1) | TrackBack | Permalink
